I just finished a large scientific essay—and I wrote it shoulder-to-shoulder with AI. Along the way I kept observing the same pattern, over and over, until I felt compelled to name it. I’ve been in research long enough, and I read widely enough, to recognize the pattern from other domains. Years ago, in the pre-AI era, I even tried to build an application to tackle it.

One founder, one laptop, one billion. Agents build the product, write the copy, run ops while the human sleeps. It feels plausible. Even The Economist recently cheered the one-person-unicorn narrative — proof of how seductive the story is. Open-access AI turned scarcity into software. Why couldn’t a single, ruthless operator ride that wave?

AI is transforming the labor market, but how exactly? First studies analyzing macro-data found no worrying signals. But they overlook the impacts occuring at deeper levels: individual decisions and actions, optimized by AI-delivered information. Digging at this nano-level reveals the true impacts.

In 2006, two AI researchers in the Swiss Alps — a PhD student and his supervisor— grew frustrated with the chaotic array of AI definitions. They decided a thorough inventory was needed. The PhD student undertook the task, meticulously reviewing hundreds of intelligence definitions and selecting 71. The sources spanned dictionaries, encyclopedias, studies, textbooks, and essays, covering fields like psychology, education, computer science, and philosophy.

“When Will AI Transform the Economy?,” asks Andre Infante. His analysis at substack offers an explanation for the slow economic transformation despite fast AI advancements. The central question of his investigation is: Why hasn’t AI changed the economy yet, and when will it? Infante identifies the core problem in the discrepancy between the impressive peak performances (”intelligence ceilings”) and the lack of everyday reliability (”intelligence floors”) of current models.

A few years ago, I had a serious bicycle accident – broken bones, hospital, out of action for several weeks. Lying in my sickbed, I had time to think and wondered: Why was the operation so complicated, and why does it take so long to heal? Howe can we fasten this process? Suddenly, I couldn't help laughing at myself: What a stupid idea! Why improve surgery and treatment? Wouldn’t it be better to avoid this whole damned accident in the first place?  

The article "The end of the rip-off economy" in The Economist identifies a central change triggered by Artificial Intelligence: the dissolution of information asymmetries in the market. The observation is accurate and describes the beginning of a development. The article focuses on the first, direct effect – fairer pricing. However, if we follow this development to its logical conclusion, we encounter second- and third-order effects that go beyond mere market efficiency and could change the foundations of the consumer economy.

Recently, I attended a startup association event in Berlin where participants shared findings on AI use in companies and startups. One figure stuck with me: only 3% of companies use AI in their internal processes.

Pascual Restrepo’s recent paper, “We Won’t be Missed,” offers a provocative conclusion: In a world with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), labor’s share of income converges to zero because human labor is replaced by “compute.” This result is plausible. The modeled path to it, however, is not.

The article "The end of the rip-off economy" in The Economist identifies a central change triggered by Artificial Intelligence: the dissolution of information asymmetries in the market. The observation is accurate and describes the beginning of a development. The article focuses on the first, direct effect – fairer pricing. However, if we follow this development to its logical conclusion, we encounter second- and third-order effects that go beyond mere market efficiency and could change the foundations of the consumer economy.

How will I make a living if AI takes over my job? This is one of the most frequently asked questions about the consequences of using AI in companies. Typical answers are: "It will not happen soon." Or: "Many jobs will disappear, but others will be created. It's always been this way.